Tmax forecast accuracy
Standard Forecast vs Ensemble AI Forecast — comparing each model's daily Tmax prediction against the highest METAR temperature for that day.
Standard Forecast
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Ensemble AI Forecast
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MAE trend
Daily mean absolute error (averaged across cities). Lower is better.
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Predicted vs actual
Each dot is one city × day. The diagonal is a perfect forecast — points above mean over-prediction, below mean under-prediction.
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Forecast accuracy by snapshot hour
Accuracy of the forecast locked at each local hour, vs realized METAR Tmax — Erna Pro vs Ensemble side by side. Shows how much each forecast improves during the day (pacing / fresher model runs).
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By city
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