Tmax forecast accuracy

Standard Forecast vs Ensemble AI Forecast — comparing each model's daily Tmax prediction against the highest METAR temperature for that day.

Standard Forecast
Loading…
Ensemble AI Forecast
Loading…

MAE trend

Daily mean absolute error (averaged across cities). Lower is better.

Loading…

Predicted vs actual

Each dot is one city × day. The diagonal is a perfect forecast — points above mean over-prediction, below mean under-prediction.

Loading…

Forecast accuracy by snapshot hour

Accuracy of the forecast locked at each local hour, vs realized METAR Tmax — Erna Pro vs Ensemble side by side. Shows how much each forecast improves during the day (pacing / fresher model runs).

Loading…

By city

Loading…

Recently resolved days

No resolved days yet.