Safe NO = a bucket that sits clearly outside the range spanned by the weather models + pacing + ensemble bias. Buckets are safe if their lower edge is above max(raw_max) + pacing + bias + margin OR their upper edge is below min(raw_max) + pacing − bias − margin. If today's observed max already reaches a bucket it is dropped. Buckets where the market prices NO below 50¢ are dropped — traders are too confident the bucket will hit.